Decision day looms for Tariana Turia

Ruth Berry
NZ Herald, 24.04.2004

At the same time as the foreshore hikoi prepares to cross Auckland's Harbour Bridge on Tuesday, Labour MPs will assemble at Premier House in Wellington for an all-day caucus meeting.

Despite the obvious polarities, members of the two groups are likely to be sharing one common thought - will Tariana Turia resign and force a byelection?

Nearly three weeks ago, Turia told Prime Minister Helen Clark, who had publicly signalled it was time to end the vacillation, that this was indeed her intention.

The Tai Hauauru MP was not prepared to put up with a public flogging - involving the removal of her ministerial warrants - for voting against the foreshore and seabed legislation.

But Clark was not prepared to waive Cabinet collective responsibility and allow Turia to cross the floor without punishment.
The die appeared cast.

By the next day, however, with Tainui MP Nanaia Mahuta hinting her resignation might also be possible and Carterton MP Georgina Beyer revealing she would abstain, Decision Day was suddenly deferred.

Deputy Prime Minister Michael Cullen led the retreat, giving the MPs until this Tuesday's caucus meeting or possibly even until the bill is first read in Parliament the following Thursday to finally make up their minds.

Why? Because Labour is desperate to avoid a byelection. (Two would be ghastly.)

The reasons why are numerous, but two are obvious. As party insiders reluctantly concede, Turia, capitalizing on protest votes, has a real chance of winning a byelection.

This would be highly embarrassing for the Government, which has claimed only "radicals" oppose its plans.

Longer-term this would erode Labour's grip on the seven Maori seats - which form a critical block vote, the size of a minor party.

Secondly, it would divert attention from the Budget - and this is not an ordinary Budget. This is the Battler's Budget, the $1 billion hand-up for those on lower incomes, core Labour constituents who can finally be rewarded after four years of tight control of the chequebook.

Party strategists see it as a critical pre-election year sweetener and they want as much media mileage for their money as they can get.

Had Turia resigned from Parliament three weeks ago, the most likely byelection date, using Chief Electoral Office estimates, would have been Saturday, May 29 - two days after the Budget. This was a nightmare scenario.

Aside from dwarfing the big day and stretching strategic capacity, the timing would have prevented Labour from using its "more cash in pockets" fruits as a campaign platform.

Given that the largest concentration of Tai Hauauru voters reside in beneficiary-rich Porirua, this was important.
If a byelection is called in the next two weeks, it remains a severe irritant - but the timing would be less problematic.

At least several of Labour's Maori MPs who are out selling the bill but under huge emotional pressure may want the caucus to force Turia and Mahuta to make a final stand on Tuesday.

The ongoing accommodation of the pair (Beyer has since pledged her vote), on top of electorate taunts of emasculation, has exacerbated obvious internal tensions.

Mahuta has done little further to fuel speculation she may force a byelection, but Turia has been regularly discussing the issue with supporters.

As the hikoi - including some of Turia's key supporters - descends on Parliament, more combative MPs such as John Tamihere will want to know just which side she is batting for.

It's the question, of course, that Turia is once again struggling to resolve.

And while Clark thinks there is a chance she can keep her in the fold, she is likely to resist pressure to force a final decision - if it is not volunteered - for another week.

She may also consider it wise to take that path to downplay any perception, in the event of a byelection, that she forced Turia to walk the plank.

Clark is hoping Turia will reconsider abstaining, at least for the first vote. But she and her emissaries are wooing the MP to the astonishing extent that one option she is considering is stripping Turia of only some of her portfolios.

A U-turn like that would be hard to justify to her own colleagues, let alone opponents. Privately it's an attractive option for Turia, but like Clark, she has to weigh up whether she has painted herself into too much of a corner to agree to such a deal without significant loss of face.

Some of her key supporters are intent on her becoming the figurehead of a renewed Maori political force, with the established Mana Maori party a likely vehicle.

If Mahuta joined Turia and also won a byelection - considered less likely - the Government and its confidence and supply party United Future would have only 60 of Parliament's 120 votes.

This could have the effect of giving the pair almost as much leverage as the Greens or New Zealand First when it comes to passing legislation.

But other Turia supporters are pointing to what the MP has achieved through her five associate portfolios and consider she is more valuable where she is. They point to Matiu Rata's experience when, disillusioned, he left Labour and forced a byelection in 1980 - losing by 991 votes.

Labour is also taking every opportunity to reiterate these points, and to "remind" Turia there are many Maori in her electorate who aren't on the hui circuit and for whom the foreshore is a somewhat remote issue.

Despite its assertions, the party is nevertheless unconvinced about a replay of the Rata loss and is taking the byelection threat seriously.

Strategists concede the burgeoning iwi radio network has added a significant new dimension to the flow of information.

There are grumbles about the balance of the foreshore coverage of some of the state-funded iwi stations.

Ironically, should a byelection occur, the Government may regret Maori TV didn't take a little longer to go on air.

Tamihere, conveniently, had some small business meetings already scheduled in Turia's electorate last week.

He spent the entire week there and conducted a number of foreshore meetings, trying to build support for the bill.
He was also scoping out byelection issues for Labour.

The week before, Waiariki MP Mita Ririrui dispatched himself at great haste to a top-level Ratana meeting after hearing Turia supporters had put the foreshore on the agenda. The church is understood to have reaffirmed its alliance with Labour.

Turia, herself accused of stalling simply so she can use her ministerial resources and networks to build byelection support, has been particularly angered by the Tamihere intrusion. But she, too, has been holding hui. Ever the politician, Turia maintains she will vote the way her constituents tell her to.

The question is, which constituents is she choosing to meet? And do her electorate constituents have the same view as her other constituency, those who are marching on Parliament?

Only Turia ultimately can and should take responsibility for making those decisions. And it's time she made up her mind.